Uber Q3 Earnings: Wall Street's Unmet Expectations

TITLE: Uber's Q3 2025: The Autonomous Hype Train is Leaving the Station (Without Passengers?)

Uber's Q3 2025 results are in, and the top-line numbers look solid. Revenue up 20% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA jumped 33% to $2.3 billion. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi is talking about "lifelong customer relationships" and the "transformative potential of AI and autonomy." The market, however, seems less convinced.

Digging Beneath the Surface

Let's start with the basics. Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) hit 189 million, a 17% jump. Trips grew 22% to 3.5 billion. So far, so good. But the devil, as always, is in the details. The net income attributable to Uber was $6.6 billion, but a whopping $4.9 billion of that came from a tax valuation release. That’s not exactly organic growth; it's more like finding money in the couch cushions.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Khosrowshahi's statement is all about AI and autonomy. He's selling a driverless future. But look at the segment breakdown: Mobility gross bookings grew 20%, while Delivery grew 25%. Freight? Flat. The growth engine isn't some futuristic robotaxi fleet; it's still delivering burgers and driving people to the airport.

The forward-looking statements are equally telling. Uber projects Q4 gross bookings of $52.25 billion to $53.75 billion. Respectable, but is it revolutionary? Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $2.41 billion to $2.51 billion, a 31% to 36% year-over-year increase. Again, solid numbers, but hardly indicative of a company on the verge of a technological paradigm shift.

The Autonomous Asterisk

The biggest disconnect is between the hype around autonomy and its actual impact on Uber's financials. The company is partnering with Nvidia to build 100,000 Level 4 autonomous vehicles by 2027. Lucid is also in the mix with a robotaxi service. Joby, fresh off buying Blade's passenger operations, will let Uber users book helicopter and seaplane trips. It's a flurry of activity, but where's the ROI?

Consider the Nvidia partnership. One hundred thousand vehicles by 2027 sounds impressive. But let's break it down. Uber completed 3.5 billion trips in Q3 2025 alone. Even if all 100,000 autonomous vehicles were operational today (which they aren't), and each vehicle completed ten trips per day (a wildly optimistic assumption), that's still only 1 billion trips per year. That means autonomous vehicles would account for less than 30% of Uber's current trip volume.

More importantly, what are the economics of those autonomous trips? Will they be cheaper than human-driven rides, or will the cost of the technology (Nvidia's Drive AGX Hyperion 10 platform isn't going to be cheap) eat into Uber's margins? The press release doesn't say. Details on the operational costs are scarce, but the impact is clear.

The question I have is: How much of Uber's current valuation is based on the promise of autonomy, and how much of that promise is actually baked into the numbers? The tax valuation benefit is a one-off event. The real test will be whether Uber can translate its autonomous investments into tangible, sustainable growth.

A Methodological Critique: It's worth pausing to consider how Uber calculates its MAPCs. They define MAPCs as the number of unique consumers who completed a Mobility ride or received a Delivery order on our platform at least once in a given month. This means someone who orders Uber Eats once and takes a single Uber ride is counted the same as a daily user. Is this really the best way to measure platform engagement? I think not.

The Autonomous Mirage

Uber is selling a vision of the future, but the present is still dominated by the same old business model: connecting riders with drivers and delivering food. The autonomous initiatives are intriguing, but they're not yet moving the needle in a significant way. The company is investing heavily in these technologies, but the returns are still uncertain. The question isn't whether Uber can build a driverless fleet, but whether it should, given the opportunity cost.

The Market's Playing the Waiting Game

Uber's growth in Q3 2025 was undeniably strong, fueled by increases in trips and active users. However, a significant portion of net income came from a tax valuation release, masking the true operational performance. Despite CEO Khosrowshahi's emphasis on AI and autonomous driving, the core business drivers remain traditional mobility and delivery services. The disconnect between the autonomous hype and its tangible impact on Uber's financials raises questions about the long-term viability and economic benefits of these investments. It's a classic case of Wall Street wanting more than just good numbers; they want a clear path to future dominance, and Uber's autonomous strategy, while ambitious, hasn't yet proven its ability to deliver.

Still a Long Road Ahead